China is expanding its nuclear-warhead arsenal at a rapid pace, representing the swiftest buildup of nuclear weaponry in human history. Recent findings reveal Beijing’s failure to clarify its motivations until now, as outlined in a newly released white paper, reports 24brussels.

A Pentagon report published in late 2023 indicated that China possessed 500 operational nuclear warheads, with that number reportedly escalating to over 600 by late 2024. Projections suggest that by 2030, the count could rise to approximately 1,000 nuclear warheads.

In an effort to provide clarity regarding its nuclear posture, China issued a white paper titled “China’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era” on November 27, marking two decades since the release of a similar document. Nevertheless, many issues remain ambiguous. The white paper asserts that the modernization of China’s nuclear forces is intended “to safeguard China’s own strategic security and overall global strategic stability.”

Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie China’s Nuclear Policy Program, noted that China’s narrative now emphasizes that enhancing its military capabilities is meant to bolster global peace. This perspective links the achievement of global strategic stability to the development of a more capable Chinese nuclear force.

The emphasis on military capability was evident during the military parade held on September 3, where various nuclear weapon types were prominently displayed. The showcased arsenal included DF-61, DF-5C, and DF-31BJ intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), alongside JL-1 and JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

Commenting on the white paper’s release, Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, remarked that while the content aligns with China’s historical positions, it is laced with propaganda that diverges from its actions and policies. Nonetheless, he suggested the document offers novel insights into China’s nuclear strategy.

One notable aspect of the white paper is China’s declaration of its identity as a peace-loving nation. It states, “The Chinese nation has always cherished peace and harmony among nations, upheld justice and opposed abuse of the weak by the strong and excessive use of force.” However, these assertions are contradicted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and China Coast Guard’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea. Beijing’s disregard for international rulings, including claims deemed illegal by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, further undermines its narrative.

The white paper also contains criticisms directed at the United States, emphasizing the duality of peace and conflict options available worldwide. It is paradoxical that China continues to support Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine while advocating for peace.

Notably, the document points the finger at the U.S. regarding military expansions and alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. It contends that the U.S. employs a strategy to maintain absolute strategic superiority, which exacerbates regional tensions. Although Beijing has criticized U.S. missile deployments in the region, it has simultaneously accelerated its own missile arsenal expansion, which includes around 500 DF-26 and DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

Zhao highlighted the hypocrisy in China’s criticism of other states’ missile deployments, noting that China’s own expansion cannot simply be described as modest.

The white paper indicates that China has largely abstained from engaging in U.S.-led arms control discussions, while blaming Washington for withdrawing from several treaties. Historical context reveals that such withdrawals often occurred in response to violations by other nations, notably Russia’s non-compliance with treaty obligations.

Despite escalating its nuclear capabilities, the white paper advocates for nuclear disarmament, urging states with substantial nuclear arsenals to pursue disarmament. However, questions remain regarding the likelihood of cooperation from countries such as North Korea, Israel, India, and Pakistan, let alone China’s own compliance.

Moreover, China maintains that it will not consider arms control measures until the U.S. abandons its “aggressive nuclear deterrent policy based on first use.” This stance underscores the complexities surrounding nuclear policy negotiations.

Jeffrey Lewis, a Distinguished Scholar of Global Security at Middlebury College, noted the white paper’s firm endorsement of China’s no-first-use policy and its commitment not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states. This policy, however, is countered by ongoing enhancements to China’s nuclear capabilities under Chairman Xi Jinping.

The document concludes with China’s assertion of its role as a responsible international actor, insisting on its commitment to global stability while simultaneously expanding its defense spending. As the world observes China’s actions, the call for cooperative arms control and disarmament becomes increasingly layered and complicated, reflecting the broader geopolitical dynamics at play.

In this context, analysts continue to monitor regional tensions and the implications of China’s expanding military capabilities, particularly in relation to its claims of peace stewardship amidst an escalating arms race.