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Gaza conflict offers strategic opening for Russia in Ukraine war

12th October 2023 – (Moscow) The sudden eruption of violence between Israel and Hamas has created a potential inflection point in the Ukraine war, handing Russia an opportunity to regain momentum amid its ongoing military struggles. With global attention diverted and pressure on Ukraine’s Western backers mounting, the Gaza crisis significantly alters the strategic landscape to Russia’s advantage.

The timing of the clashes between Israeli forces and Hamas could hardly be better from Russia’s perspective. Coming just months into the Ukraine invasion, the Gaza conflict deals a major distraction that Russia can exploit on multiple fronts.

First, the crisis diverts America’s diplomatic bandwidth away from the Ukrainian conflict. This not only hampers U.S. support for Kyiv in the near-term, but also risks eroding Washington’s focus over time if the Israel-Hamas tensions become protracted.

Second, the fighting in Gaza threatens to redirect vital military equipment to the Middle East, starving Ukraine’s forces of much-needed arms and materiel. Israel will likely demand more American weapons to replenish its Iron Dome defences and conduct potential ground operations against Hamas. This risks depriving Ukraine of key munitions and hardware.

Moreover, an expanded Middle East war also risks weakening Western resolve to continue funding Ukraine’s military. With implications of a wider regional conflagration, pressures will grow on European governments and Washington to reduce commitments to the Ukrainian cause.

In essence, the eruption of clashes between Israel and Hamas is a strategic godsend for Russia as it seeks to regain momentum and leverage in the grinding Ukraine campaign. It effectively hits the “pause button” on global attention while forcing the West into tougher resource allocation choices.

Navigating Complex Regional Dynamics

To fully capitalise on this opportunity, Russia will need to calibrate its regional diplomacy carefully. Moscow has cultivated ties with both Israel and major Palestinian factions over the years. It must now balance these competing relationships amid the crisis.

On one hand, Russia cannot jeopardise its relatively cordial ties with Israel. Despite providing sanctuary for some Jewish oligarchs, Moscow has avoided directly antagonising Israel over Ukraine. Meanwhile, Israel has maintained neutrality over Russia’s invasion, declining to send military aid to Kyiv.

At the same time, Russia has strengthened relations with Israel’s nemesis, Iran, which is the likely source of Hamas’ sophisticated new rockets and drones. As Tehran’s new partner, Moscow will be reluctant to openly back Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

Hence, in both private and public messaging, Russia is likely to adopt a nominally balanced posture emphasizing de-escalation, while subtly favouring prolonging the tensions to distract from Ukraine. Despite rhetorical appeals for peace, a protracted Gaza crisis aligns with Russia’s strategic interests.

Putin’s Long-Term Vision … 

“We do not believe that Russia was involved in any way,” Israel’s ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Ben Zvi, told the Kommersant newspaper this week, adding that it was “complete nonsense” to suggest there was a Russian connection to the atrocities committed by Hamas in Israel.

Selected Articles – The News And Times

IS PUTIN BEHIND THE GAZA WAR? Putin and Gaza War: Gaza conflict offers strategic opening for Russia in Ukraine war … Hamas Attack Ends a Delicate Entente Between Russia and Israel … Israel-Gaza conflict: an opportunity for Putin while the world is distracted … Israel’s Blindness Toward Russia Will Prove to Be a Poor Choice – Israel News – Haaretz.com … Putin Offers Muted Response to Attack on Israel. That Speaks Volumes.

 Putin’s Biggest Attack On Israel Amid War In Gaza; ‘Brutal Methods… Not All Are Hamas’ | WatchPutin and Gaza War – GS IS PUTIN BEHIND THE GAZA WAR? Putin and Gaza War: Gaza conflict offers strategic opening for Russia in Ukraine war … Hamas Attack Ends a Delicate Entente Between Russia and Israel … Israel-Gaza conflict: an opportunity for Putin…

posted 2h ago by Michael Novakhov (Mike Nova) via The News And Times

IS PUTIN BEHIND THE GAZA WAR? Putin and Gaza War

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has long portrayed himself as a friend of Vladimir Putin. In a memoir published during Russia’s war on Ukraine, Netanyahu repeatedly lauded the Russian leader for his intellect and his “particularly friendly attitude” toward the Jewish people.Putin, too, has over the years cast himself as a loyal ally of…

posted 16m ago via thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com